Ukraine War Weakens Russia's Grip on Ex-Soviet States

The large-scale war in Ukraine is significantly undermining Moscow's power in the territory of its former empire. According to a Bloomberg analysis, countries such as Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, which were previously in Russia's orbit, are now forced to reconsider their security policies and seek new allies.

The reason is that Putin has clearly demonstrated his readiness to use force to return former imperial territories or to "protect" Russians living abroad. And while officials in the Kremlin are concerned about the weakening of Moscow's positions, other major powers are entering the arena, actively filling the resulting vacuum.

China is strengthening its economic ties. In the last two years, China's trade turnover with the five Central Asian republics has grown by a third. Beijing has already surpassed Russia to become the largest trading partner of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The construction of a third railway line with Kazakhstan is planned, and during Xi Jinping's visit, contracts worth $24 billion were signed.

The United States has also become more active. After the peace agreement, the US President invited the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to the White House. Washington has received exclusive rights for the development of the so-called "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" project, which will connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through the territory of Armenia.

Turkey also sees an opportunity in the opening of borders and the development of transport links in the region.

At the same time, the European Union has signed a strategic partnership agreement with the five Central Asian countries, including an investment program of up to €12 billion for the development of transport links and energy.

Undoubtedly, Russia may try to restore its influence in these countries after the end of the war in Ukraine by freeing up its military resources. But now it has strong competitors who have already strengthened their positions in the region, writes Bloomberg.