Turkish C-130 Crash: Official Theory vs. Expert Doubts

The crash of the Turkish military transport C-130 aircraft in Georgian territory, which claimed the lives of 20 military personnel, has become not only a tragedy but also a subject of intense discussion. While the official investigation is ongoing, conflicting versions are circulating, ranging from technical malfunction to the possibility of external interference.

Initial official versions are leaning towards technical or procedural problems. It is reported that there were no explosives on the plane, as it was transporting mechanical spare parts for F-16 fighter jets. In addition, no traces of external impact were found on the aircraft's fuselage, which rules out, for example, visible signs of a missile strike. In these conditions, two main scenarios are being considered. The first is a technical failure of the aircraft due to its age. It is noted that the aircraft has been in operation for a long time, underwent its last major overhaul in 2020, and it is not ruled out that corrosion could have led to a structural failure. The second version is the improper securing of the cargo, which could have shifted during the flight, damaging the aircraft's internal systems.

However, parallel to these official versions, more alarming assessments are being voiced in Turkish expert circles. A number of reputable security experts are questioning the version of technical malfunction. Retired military officer Coşkun Başbuğ stated on CNN Türk that the C-130 is an extremely reliable aircraft, and technical problems should be ruled out. In his opinion, the investigation should focus on the versions of sabotage or direct attack. This view is also shared by expert İbrahim Keleş, who noted that "there is a possibility of external influence."

Moreover, military expert Kazım Dalkıran did not rule out that the plane could have been shot down by air defense systems. According to him, some systems that are in constant combat readiness in border zones could have automatically shot down unidentified objects. Furthermore, a version has begun to heat up in the Azerbaijani segment that the Russian military base located in Gyumri could be to blame for the crash.