Trump in Zugzwang Over Venezuela, Analysts Say

The crisis surrounding Venezuela continues to be one of the main challenges for US foreign policy. What steps might Washington take to overthrow the regime of Nicolás Maduro?

Most likely, President Donald Trump will not resort to a military invasion or even missile strikes. The concentration of the American fleet off the coast of Venezuela is rather aimed at exerting psychological pressure on the military elite. According to experts, the White House's calculation is that the generals, feeling the danger, will convince Maduro to resign and leave the country. However, for this, they will demand guarantees for their own security, which complicates the situation. In addition, Maduro has surrounded himself with Cuban advisers who closely monitor high-ranking military officials. Any wrong move could lead to their immediate arrest and even execution.

Donald Trump cannot fail to realize that the failure of the mission to remove Maduro from power would be a serious blow to his reputation. He cannot allow the aircraft carrier "Gerald R. Ford," after circling off the coast of Venezuela for some time, to return to its base in Virginia without any results. Such a development would present Trump as a weak leader incapable of decisive action.

However, the scenario in which Trump decides to strike Venezuela is no less dangerous. According to some reports, the Venezuelan authorities are preparing their own "destructive weapon" against the US. This is not about a military response, but about creating an atmosphere of uncontrollable chaos in Caracas. They could provoke a large-scale social riot, under which Trump simply would not know who is actually in control of the situation in the country and with whom it is possible to negotiate. By the way, Maduro's decision to prepare for universal resistance also has this subtext. The goal is not to go to a large-scale war against Washington, but to start a guerrilla war when American forces invade the country.

Under such conditions, bloody clashes would become inevitable, which would be costly for the White House. Trump has found himself in an obvious zugzwang, where any decision will worsen the situation.