Tomahawks for Ukraine: A Potential War Game-Changer

Discussions around the potential supply of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine are taking on new contexts. According to the Financial Times, if the supply is approved, American contractors will help the Ukrainian armed forces operate these complex systems, which indicates an unprecedented level of involvement.

Tomahawk missiles significantly surpass anything Ukraine has had so far. Their main advantage is their strike range, which is estimated at approximately 1,500–2,000 kilometers. For comparison, the range of the Storm Shadow / SCALP cruise missiles, long used by Ukraine, is only about 300 kilometers.

Although the 1,500-2,000 km range is comparable to the capabilities of Ukrainian long-range drones, the power of the Tomahawk is incomparable. Its warhead weighs about 450 kg, whereas most drones carry only tens of kilograms. This power allows it to hit fortified concrete structures or cover large areas with submunitions. Additionally, Tomahawks fly several times faster than drones and are protected from electronic warfare, using multiple guidance systems, including TERCOM, which compares the terrain beneath the missile with its onboard map, not relying solely on satellite navigation.

President Trump has stated that before agreeing to the supply, he wants to know where Kyiv will be "sending" these missiles. According to Ukrainian media, Kyiv provided Washington with a list of about 200 potential targets last year.

Excluding targets that can already be effectively hit by drones, the list likely includes major military-industrial facilities deep in Russia, such as the factory producing Geran/Shahed-type UAVs in Tatarstan. Possible targets also include airbases where Su-34 bombers, which strike the Ukrainian front lines, are stationed.

It is clear that a massive supply of powerful, long-range cruise missiles could change the course of the war, but only if they are truly large-scale. A small-scale supply of Tomahawk launchers would be more of a political gesture by Trump than a practical tool to counter Kremlin forces.