What's Behind Russian Incursions into NATO Airspace?

The European continent is facing new and rapidly growing security challenges. At the core are the multiple violations of the airspace of NATO member countries by the Russian Federation. These actions, which are seen as a test of the Alliance's vigilance and response capabilities, have led to a fundamental review of security policy by European leaders. The seriousness of the situation has prompted the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to make a statement: "We will protect every inch of Europe's borders," which symbolizes a shift from diplomatic concerns to the practical strengthening of defense capabilities. But is every member of the European family in agreement on this issue? The answer is not unequivocal.

In response to the growing tensions, Europe's political leadership has begun to form a new vision of security. Ursula von der Leyen, in an interview with Welt am Sonntag, unequivocally stated that although NATO must remain the center of collective defense, a "significantly stronger European pillar" is also necessary. "Europe must become more autonomous and independent in security matters," she stated, recalling the European Union's "Readiness 2030" program. Within the framework of this initiative, it is planned to mobilize up to 800 billion euros for defense needs. This is a strategic turn aimed at reducing dependence and increasing the continent's own defense capability.

Parallel to the political statements, NATO is moving to practical steps. A vivid example of this is the launch of the anti-aircraft defense mission in the skies of Poland by Great Britain. As reported by Reuters, two "Typhoon" type fighters of the Royal Air Force have begun to conduct patrols within the framework of NATO's "Eastern Sentry" operation, which was initiated after the incursions of Russian unmanned aerial vehicles. The UK's Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey, noted that this mission "sends a clear signal that NATO's airspace will be protected." This shows that the Alliance is ready not only with statements but also with a real military presence to deter any aggression.

At the same time, the discussions within Europe are becoming increasingly harsh. In one of Germany's leading political forces, the CDU/CSU, there are already open calls for a military response to the violations. Jürgen Hardt, an expert on foreign policy issues, has raised the question of the possibility of destroying Russian fighters over NATO territory. "The Kremlin needs a clear 'stop' signal," he stated. "Only the clear signal that every violation of the military border will be met with a military response, including the downing of Russian fighters over NATO territory, will yield results." He warned that Russia will continue to escalate the situation, moving from airspace violations to the shelling of individual targets, and then to a ground invasion.

The true nature of these threats is best seen in the example of the recent incident in Estonia's airspace. As reported by AP, during a 12-minute incursion, Russian pilots completely ignored the signals of NATO (Italian F-35) pilots. The commander of Estonia's military intelligence center, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, noted that the Russian planes "should have known that they were in Estonian airspace." The country's Minister of Defence, Hanno Pevkur, suggested that the "root cause" of these provocations is to distract the West's attention from Ukraine. According to him, Moscow may be trying to provoke NATO countries to send additional air defense assets to Estonia, hoping that Kyiv's allies will be more engaged in "their own defense" and less supportive of Ukraine.