Russia Could Attack NATO Tomorrow, German General Warns

A high-ranking German military official has warned that Russia could launch a limited attack on NATO territory at any moment, although such a decision would depend on the position of the Western alliance.

"If we look at Russia's current capabilities and combat power, Russia could launch a small-scale attack on NATO territory even tomorrow," Lieutenant General Alexander Sollfrank said in an interview with Reuters. He added, however: "Small, fast, regionally limited, nothing big; Russia is too constrained in Ukraine for that."

Sollfrank, who heads Germany's joint operations command and oversees defense planning, reiterated NATO's warnings that if Russia continues its arms build-up, it could launch a large-scale attack on the Alliance as early as 2029.

Despite the losses in Ukraine, according to the general, the Russian Air Force maintains significant combat power, and its nuclear and missile forces have remained untouched. "The ground forces are suffering losses, but Russia is announcing that it aims to increase the total number of troops to 1.5 million. And Russia has enough main battle tanks to be able to carry out a limited attack even tomorrow," Sollfrank noted, without specifying whether such an attack is currently being planned.

In his opinion, the likelihood of a Russian attack on NATO depends on three factors: Russia's military strength, military experience, and leadership. "These three factors lead me to the conclusion that a Russian attack is within the realm of possibility. Whether it happens or not largely depends on our own behavior," he added, alluding to the importance of NATO's deterrence efforts.

The general also noted that Moscow's hybrid warfare tactics, including drone incursions, should be seen as interconnected elements of a strategy that also includes the war in Ukraine. "The Russians call this non-linear warfare. In their doctrine, this is war before resorting to conventional weapons. And they threaten to use nuclear weapons, which is war through terror," Sollfrank explained. According to him, Russia's goal is both to provoke NATO and to assess its response in order to "sow insecurity, spread fear, cause damage, spy, and test the alliance's resilience."