Politico Predicts 5 New "Hot Spots" That Could Ignite

India and Pakistan: Having roughly equal nuclear arsenals (170 and 180 warheads, respectively), these countries are perhaps closest to the real risk of nuclear war today. Politics plays an important role: nationalist sentiments and the desire to "show strength" are increasingly pushing the parties towards escalation. To recall, in 2025, the parties already "probed" each other, using heavy equipment, missiles, and aircraft.

China-Taiwan: The conflict between the countries could become the main test of the 21st-century world order and determine who will be the leader: the US or China. Washington has long declared its readiness to defend Taiwan, but many doubt that US President Trump will show the same determination. In 2025, China and Taiwan conducted overtly and mutually provocative large-scale military exercises and continue to actively arm themselves.

Russia and the Baltic countries: A possible conflict could be driven by Moscow's desire to reclaim territories it considers historically its own, as well as the desire to test NATO's and the EU's readiness to protect their eastern members.

India-China: India has significantly more settlements within the range of Chinese weaponry than China has within India's. Tensions in the region are very high, which leads to serious risks of misunderstandings and escalation. For that reason, both sides are forbidden from carrying weapons along the border. However, effective deterrence mechanisms, treaties, or direct communication channels are absent between the two countries.

Korean Peninsula: North Korea, a country with serious internal problems, including acute food shortages and harsh government control, is unlikely to follow the path of Saddam Hussein or Gaddafi, given that it possesses nuclear weapons. However, if Kim Jong Un feels a threat to his power or weakness, the development of events could follow an unpredictable and dangerous scenario.