Macron Cornered as PM's Resignation Deepens French Crisis

The French parliament has passed a vote of no confidence in the government of Prime Minister François Bayrou. President Emmanuel Macron has "taken note" of the National Assembly's decision to oust Prime Minister François Bayrou. The Elysée Palace has stated that a new prime minister will be appointed "in the coming days." The current prime minister will resign on September 9. Will this end the current government's difficulties, or are they just beginning?

The challenge facing French President Emmanuel Macron—appointing his fifth prime minister in less than two years—reveals the depth of the political crisis the ruling power faces today. François Bayrou is set to resign as prime minister on September 9, following a parliamentary vote against his plans to curb the budget deficit.

Bayrou's predecessor, Michel Barnier, met the same fate over his financial plans just nine months earlier. Bayrou had warned lawmakers that his fall would not eliminate France's financial problems. However, like the conservative Barnier, he had little defense without a parliamentary majority.

Pushing through important political decisions without the support of a parliamentary majority has become perilous for Macron since his failed gamble on snap elections in 2024. According to analysts, his position has clearly weakened. "There is no easy way out of this," said Kevin Arceneaux, director of political research at Sciences Po university. "The president is in a really difficult situation," he noted.

France has rarely suffered from such a deep political crisis since the creation of the Fifth Republic, the current system of government, in 1958. The 1958 constitution was designed to ensure stable governance by creating a powerful and highly centralized presidency with a solid majority in parliament, and to avoid the unstable periods immediately before and after World War II.

However, Macron, who transformed the political landscape upon coming to power in 2017, finds himself entangled in a parliament where the center no longer holds the balance, and the far-right and far-left dominate.

France is not accustomed to building coalitions and finding consensus, unlike the historical experience of, for example, Italy.

In this situation, Macron could appoint another prime minister from his team. Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu is considered a likely candidate. Such a choice could exacerbate public discontent.

Some political commentators have said they expect Macron to approach a socialist with an offer to lead the government. But the socialists also have their conditions. They support policies of taxing the rich and reversing the move to raise the retirement age. Such measures contradict Macron's pro-business principles and undermine previous reforms aimed at attracting foreign investors. Many analysts consider it unlikely that President Macron will back down from his adopted reforms.

Macron could call for snap elections again, but polls show that Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally would strengthen its position as the largest single political force in the National Assembly. Macron's party would lose even more seats.

The prospect of sharing power with his nationalist main rivals would be a humiliating defeat for Macron, contradicting his own promises to counter reactionary forces. However, members of the French president's team do not rule out this prospect either. In their assessment, Macron is unpredictable and can make the most unexpected decisions. Some politicians are even calling for constitutional reforms and the creation of a Sixth Republic.

In his last New Year's speech, Macron presented the idea of referendums. Finding himself in a difficult political situation, he might be tempted to play another political card.

In 1969, Charles de Gaulle tried the same tactic to reassert his control after the May 1968 student protests. He lost and resigned the next day. Some analysts do not rule out this outcome for Macron as well.