Jihadists Besiege Mali's Capital, Russia's Role Falters

Jihadist groups have besieged and are intensifying pressure on Bamako, the capital of Mali, depriving 4 million residents of fuel and hope for the future. The Financial Times writes about this. Experts fear that if Bamako eventually falls, or if the military junta led by Assimi Goïta is forced to surrender, jihadists could turn Mali into a caliphate right next to Europe. "Many consider the imminent fall of the regime inevitable. The question is not whether it will happen, but when and how," noted Heni Nsaibia, a senior analyst for West Africa at the conflict monitoring organization Acled.

If Bamako falls into the hands of Islamists, it would be a shocking turn of events not only for Mali's military junta. Coming to power in 2020 on a wave of anti-French sentiment, it had inspired coups in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.

It would also be a huge blow for Russia, whose military presence in Mali since 2021, initially in the form of the "Wagner" private military company, was supposed to protect the regime and fight the jihadist insurgency. But the reality is different.

"It shows that the 'package' provided by Russia is not so reliable," says Nsaibia.

The analyst adds that jihadist groups in Mali have steadily strengthened during the presence of both "Wagner" and the "African Corps" that came to replace it. Despite the involvement of Russian forces, the security situation in the country has only worsened, and the territories under the control of the rebels have expanded. This failure calls into question Russia's role as a reliable security guarantor in the region.