Russia May Stage False Flag Attack on Poland: ISW

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has issued a warning that Russian and Belarusian special services may be preparing a sabotage operation against Poland, for which they will try to blame Ukraine. This analysis is based on the Kremlin's recent informational steps, which could be laying the groundwork for a "false flag" operation. This warning follows a statement released by Russian intelligence on September 30, alleging that Ukraine is planning a false attack on Polish infrastructure. According to ISW experts, the Kremlin deliberately published this information to create an informational precondition.

According to ISW, if Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) or Belarus's State Security Committee (KGB) were to carry out their own operation against Poland, Moscow would be able to use its own preliminary statement to evade responsibility and shift the blame to Kyiv. This is a classic information warfare tactic aimed at creating confusion and diverting attention from the real culprits.

The analytical center emphasizes that Moscow regularly disseminates such false information, pursuing several strategic goals. First, with such steps, the Kremlin is trying to weaken the international, especially European, support for Ukraine. Second, these actions are aimed at sowing uncertainty and distrust among NATO member states, trying to undermine the unity of the alliance.