Drone Incursions, NATO's Dilemma, and Russia's "Surprise"

Security concerns in Northern Europe have sharply increased after numerous unknown unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were spotted over Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. The latest drone visits were recorded on the night of September 28-29. These incidents occurred against the backdrop of escalating relations between European countries and Russia, as a result of which NATO, according to The Times, is considering tightening the rules for shooting down Russian aircraft in its eastern flank.

Over the past week, Denmark has faced "hybrid attacks," as the authorities have described them. The appearance of unknown UAVs has led to the temporary closure of several airports, including Copenhagen Airport. In response, the Danish government has announced a temporary ban on civilian drone flights in the country's airspace, explaining this move by the need to ensure the security of the upcoming EU summit in Copenhagen. Although official Copenhagen does not directly accuse any party, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has hinted at Moscow's possible involvement. The Kremlin has denied these accusations.

The incidents in the Scandinavian countries coincide with growing tensions along NATO's eastern borders, where recent cases of airspace violations by Russian aircraft and drones have been recorded in Poland, Romania, and Estonia. According to The Times, against the backdrop of these events, the alliance is considering changing the rules of engagement, which would simplify the decision-making process for shooting down trespassing Russian aircraft. Currently, NATO's air policing missions are mainly limited to escorting violating aircraft out of allied airspace if they do not pose an obvious military threat.

There are different opinions on this issue within the alliance. Eastern European countries, such as Poland and Estonia, are in favor of a tougher stance. At the same time, some member states are wary of the risks of escalation. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has clarified that the military already has the authority to shoot down an aircraft if it poses a direct threat, but each case is assessed individually. Russia, in turn, has described such discussions as "reckless" and warned that shooting down a Russian aircraft would be considered a declaration of war. However, it does not forget to periodically remind that the UAVs that regularly cross the borders of NATO countries have nothing to do with Moscow.