Crisis in Pokrovsk as Ukrainian Forces Run Low on Troops

The situation around the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk and the adjacent Myrnohrad has sharply deteriorated, reaching a critical level. Ukrainian military personnel and international analysts are sounding the alarm about a severe shortage of human resources in the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF), which could lead to a repeat of the tragic scenarios of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. The advance of Russian troops threatens to turn the strategically important city into a new base for attack, writes the Financial Times.

According to the UAF, there are currently more than 300 Russian soldiers in Pokrovsk. Their main goal is to reach the northern borders of the city to completely encircle the strategically important agglomeration. The 7th Corps of the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces notes that Russian forces skillfully used adverse weather conditions, particularly dense fog, to infiltrate the city with light vehicles. This significantly reduced the effectiveness of Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance and complicated the ability to strike them in open terrain.

The severity of the situation is evidenced not only by information from the battlefield but also by the alarming statements of experts and volunteers. Former Deputy Minister of Defense and head of the "Come Back Alive" foundation, Vitaliy Deynega, made a call on November 4: "Despite official assurances, the situation is more than complex and uncontrollable. It is necessary to get out of these cities while it is still possible."

Analysts note that the density of Ukrainian forces along the front has reached a critically low level: only four to seven infantrymen per kilometer. The situation is exacerbated by the rising level of desertion. In October, the prosecutor's office registered about 20,000 cases of unauthorized departure and desertion, the highest figure for the year.

According to Konrad Muzyka, director of the Polish Rochan Consulting group, "as a result, the ground forces are not expanding, but are actually decreasing in number." He adds that "the density of Ukrainian forces is so low that there are sections of the front line that are effectively defended only by unmanned aerial vehicles."

Despite all this, the Ukrainian leadership is trying to reassure the public. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on television that the situation is "generally under control," and the intensity of attacks in the city has decreased. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that 314 Russian soldiers had infiltrated the city (he previously mentioned about 200).

However, against the backdrop of these assurances, the DeepState analytical group warns that Myrnohrad is "at risk of operational encirclement," as the advance of Russian forces allows them to deploy specialized UAV strike groups that weaken Ukrainian supply and evacuation corridors.

The Pokrovsk crisis is taking place against the background of a general advance by Russian troops. DeepState also reported the capture of two other settlements: Katerynivka in the Donetsk region and Novomykolaivka in the Zaporizhzhia region. Russian forces have also made advances near five other settlements.

Analysts warn that if Kyiv insists on holding Pokrovsk at any cost without appropriate reinforcement, it could lead to a chaotic and bloody retreat, as happened in other strongholds.

Konrad Muzyka expresses concern: "If the battle for Pokrovsk is not properly organized, it could affect the perception of the armed forces. If people see a new Bakhmut or Avdiivka, they will have no incentive to join, because they will be afraid of finding themselves in the same situation."

Now, Ukrainian commanders face a difficult choice: to hold the cities with limited forces, putting the troops at risk, or to retreat to preserve manpower and concentrate defense in other critical areas. Not only the local tactical situation but also the broader strategic stability of Ukrainian forces in the east depends on this choice.